The position of «Yabloko» party and its leader Grigory Yavlinsky has always been uncompromising pacifist. But today the issue with the war went far beyond even his own ethics and politics. Therefore, the conversation editor of the economy «Novaya Gazeta» and author of the «500 days» also received — about the war. And how and what you need to save our country.
— US President said that Western sanctions have broken the Russian economy in tatters. How true his assessment — and the fact that «in tatters», and the fact that it was mainly because of the sanctions?
— The last time a similar level of rigidity statement we heard from Ronald Reagan, when he called the Soviet Union an «evil empire.» What events happened then? USSR entered Afghanistan, and then was hit by a South Korean «Boeing», then began arms program «Star Wars», which was a sham, but has become an enormous burden on the budget, began to fall in oil prices since 1985, as is well known, and in five years simply did not become the country. And here’s an analogy: the war with Ukraine, Malaysia, downed aircraft, again falling oil prices, the statement by the Russian type «we can turn America into radioactive ash», and they say that Russia is the same danger to the world, as Ebola or LIH terrorists. Therefore, Obama’s words — more than words, it is certain signs and built them a well-defined logic, and although the application of the «rags» refers to a genre of political rhetoric, nevertheless demonstrated the seriousness of the situation.
— On the question of historical analogies. I read your interesting study that establishes the relationship between oil prices and the foreign policy of the Soviet Union first, and then Russia. The fact that high oil prices makes our country more aggressive, almost no doubt. As in that long upward trend leads to stagnation in the political and economic life of the country. The question is this: the Soviet Union in the second half of the eighties tried to restructure, foreign policy has been softened by an order — and yet the country has collapsed. It’s such a historic doom curve of our history is now bound to the curve of oil prices?
— No. I do not share the popular view that the Soviet Union collapsed because of falling oil prices, or due to a shortage, or because of the fact that the people had nothing to eat. I do not know if you remember the time of the end of the 80s …
— I went to primary school.
— Counters were empty, but hunger is not been no, and the Soviet people are often transferred and much more hardships. The Soviet Union fell apart for another reason: Gorbachev allowed people to say what they think. For this plant stopped, stopped to punish, even ceased to expel from work, and it can be printed, and talk show on television.
Because the whole system was built on a lie, then lie stopped as soon as the Soviet system collapsed. There was no natural mechanisms of political life, and artificial foundation was a lie. Lie was necessary to legitimize. Once the lies stopped working, legitimacy has disappeared and the system collapsed. The price of oil is not the decisive factor.
— Now the system reacts in the opposite way: the space of freedom is narrowed, almost nothing is impossible to say, for this plant, close edition, block access to information. This, it turns out, more adequate responses?
— It means only that the lies and crimes nationwide vskroyutsya later and the current system will collapse again. This may be accompanied by other reasons. Now our country has entered into conflict with all at once, simultaneously. More or less positive prospects for such a situation is not. Furthermore, the system is not moving forward, and back. Russia adopted a program of de-modernization, which initially concerned the economy, and now has spread literally everything. The country has moved on anti-European vector — in the opposite direction, in the distant past. A movement in the opposite direction will have historically not a crisis and collapse.
— In the political sense, if you read the prominent apologists demodernization, «golden» in the history of Russia considered XV-XVI century. And in economic terms, where we are going? By dismantling capitalism?
— In Russia in the 90s was a system of peripheral capitalism. It is capitalism that is not independent and is attached as an aid to the group of most developed countries, it provides them with raw materials, various resources. He himself is a rather distant periphery, because it does not have the relevant economic and legal institutions, there is no modern drivers. All of these vital functions performed by the system for a developed country to which it was attached. And now this peripheral system will cut itself off from the city center, imagining that she can live independently. What is it now? It will degrade because it will not have communication with the main core, the periphery of which it is …
— Moreover, it deliberately breaks the connection …
— Yes, exactly. Economy of our country have made the victim of politics. Problems of our economy — political. All rates are discussing, some interest, the central bank is working correctly … And it is not in this, and in the policy. This policy, the central bank rather than destroying our economy. How else can the central bank to act in such circumstances if he is told: «stops the fall of the ruble, but reserves do not touch»? It’s like Gianni Rodari Count Countess Cherry Cherry said: «Learn! But do not touch the books! Do not you know that they are from this port? <…> Learn by heart. »
Only one that the key rate was increased to 17% at night (!), Could paralyze the economy. In humans, because it seems that the government panic, if they take the night official public decisions. Also, speaking on the merits, if the increased rate and do not intervene, it does not help. Would look at, for example, the Indonesian experience, there overnight to 50% raise rates, and intervention was not, because there was no reserve and as the rupee is falling apart, and continued to fall apart.
But that’s not the point. Purely economic issues now pointless to discuss. The economy simply can not survive such political decisions. That is the most important thing. Economy, as well as the whole country, was removed from the big world, staged her self-imposed isolation, came up with her some absurd directions. This is a man-made thing, deliberately done …
— The Prime Minister and said: «Conscious Choice».
— So I would like to understand that the destruction of the Russian economy in exchange for Crimea — this is a conscious choice? When doing here is a «conscious» choice, you know, what are the consequences and who will be responsible for it? Talk about the fact that our economy has been and is a serious problem and it was necessary to carry out far-reaching reforms — is banal truth, but in fact all the same we had, though weak, but the economy, and it was possible to live.
— As long as oil prices collapsed?
— The modern economy is a huge country and should work at 20 dollars per barrel, and 10. It was necessary to develop a domestic demand. For example, the most effective way — the mass construction of private family houses and infrastructure. Then it will work: mechanical engineering, electronics, light industry. But did not — for obvious reasons: because the corporate nomenclature-oligarchic state such problems are not solved. Can not long exist and effectively such a hybrid, that there was no competition in politics for decades and did not change the power, but there was competition in the economy. How could it happen that a policy of absolutely against strategic long-term interests of the whole country?
— I can not say how, but I understand about when — from the beginning of the third period.
— No, it’s not the time and even in person. The merger of power and property, carried out in the 90s, led to an absolute lack of control of power, paralyzing the media and the lack of an independent civil society. As a result, in this system, anyone who controls the Kremlin, can do anything.
In 2012 ended the period of «acquaintance» and began a movement «in the story.» Decided to close the theme of modernization and anti-European country to impose a direction generally obscurantist. Why did you choose such direction? Because the European direction leads to competition policy and a change of government. A obscurantist conserves power and creates the illusion that it becomes unchangeable.
— Yeah, that’s Churov said that the next generation of our people will live under communism. But to me some of the symptoms resemble the early nineties — a significant and do not stop the depreciation of the ruble and rising inflation. How realistic slide into hyperinflation and, so to speak, in giperdevalvatsiyu?
— Now — unpredictability, can be anything. And talk about the prospects of accounts in the political paradigm: a capture Mariupol tomorrow or not.
— It seems to me that the basic package of sanctions already introduced, that is, from the outside we do worse economic methods is difficult. We can argue about whether the cancel penalties and whether there is a connection with it better …
— I think that sanctions are now at least for a long time. And why Western countries such a risk factor? Because they tried to approach the issue as «the bad guys, good people.» Change the «bad guys into good guys» — everything will be OK. It turned out, in Russia it does not work — it is in the system, and citizens are easily and believe almost any promotion and any lies. Here’s what to do about it? And they must be translated into the category of Nigeria or Zimbabwe.
— I have not been haunted by the question of how adequate actions of the West. Since the isolation of a large country with nuclear weapons …
— And what can you do about it? It is now a force majeure. We now have to think what to do, how to save our country.
— That is the point of no return, we have not yet passed?
— These points are not alone. Some have already passed, some not yet, but still need to be developed.
— How it could be done in practice?
— We must do three things. Firstly, to initiate an international conference on the Crimea. Secondly, we should really bring to the Eastern Ukraine all these «vacationers» and that on which they are «on vacation» ride. Third, Russia must become part of the coalition in the fight against LIH. That’s the minimum.
— I understand that the situation can change rapidly and unpredictably, but if you imagine that now the system is in a state of «new balance», what is the outlook for further development?
— What is the drop in oil prices more than twice? In the course of the dollar is already reflected, which means that if the salary will not change, the price of the consumption basket is expected to grow at least 50-60 percent. Then inflation to 15-20% — is hopelessly optimistic scenario. So, now is the correction of income. They grew up in a two and a half times over the past ten years, will now be corrected, that is, the real incomes will decline sharply. If restrain prices and restrict businesses — will be a deficit, monetary overhang will be unemployment. Get something like the late ’80s.
— Why do I ask about it … Because a huge role in what is going on with the company, plays, of course, television propaganda, which seemed extremely effective. Still, upon the occurrence of apparent contradictions between what happens on TV (where we do not have the economic crisis), and those socio-economic consequences that are obvious, mental inertia can be overcome?
— No, I think more and more dangerous. In response to the social discontent will appoint the chief culprit. For example, it may be Obama. Obama — a great target, it is impossible to get, and rally around Putin against Obama — a sweet deal.
— And how to sell the idea nezombirovannym people, big businessmen, for example?
— Our big business, the heir to the criminal mortgage auctions, intimidated to such an extent that he did not need to «sell» — he himself «happy to be deceived.» Of course, the business understands that the political crisis, but he was afraid to even think about it, because tightly coupled with the government. Sometimes something breaks, of course. Interestingly, Deripaska returned from Davos?
— I think Putin is not up to the statements of people on the economy, that is, he also understands that this is a political issue. Simply economy detracted from its mission …
— And there is no mission, because there is no future. Previously, the prospect was: to build a country in Europe to build the economy, as throughout the world. And now what? If you are at war with the entire developed world, and you have 2% of global GDP, and they have 42% of GDP … The impasse. Admitted tragic political mistake. She has very deep roots. In fact it is the blood oozing stylistic absurd yet Bialowieza Forest. That’s all for now retribution.
— There is such a passionate part of society, which is very like what is happening, but they feel that good, but not enough. The fact that these marginalized in the mainstream now, poses risks to the regime? I mean aggressive expansion «Russian world» in Russian …
— For me, the «Russian World» — this is freedom, creativity and fairness. Banditry, criminality and obscurantism this does not apply. What is the fundamental interest of the prospect of «Russian World» — Russia to become, finally, the modern, free and European countries. When selecting historical path there are a million wrong choices, and only one correct.
Photo: Anna Artemyeva