Based on Vedomosti article, 26 December 2011
According to the Levada-Center poll, 37.6 percent of the participants of the rally at the Sakharov Prospect voted for the YABLOKO party. One out of four is ready to support YABLOKO, even if the leaders of unregistered opposition movements manage to create their own parties by the next elections. YABLOKO leader Grigory Yavlinsky was the most popular politician for the participants in the rally (24.4 percent). Every third participant of the rally for fair elections would be ready to support his candidacy at the forthcoming presidential elections. These are the results of the public opinion poll conducted by Levada-Center.
Levada-Center conducted the poll on 24 December, on the orders of the organizers of the rally at Sakharov Prospekt, surveying 791 participants at the entrance and exit from the square (statistical error of 4.8 percent). The results of the poll make it possible to draw up a socio-demographic picture of the new protest movement.
YABLOKO was the most popular party among the participants: 37.6 percent voted for this party at the parliamentary elections. The Communist Party (19.1 percent) came second, and Just Russia (11.8 percent) third. The Right Cause is preferred by 6.5 percent, with the LDPR attracting the same amount of support, while less than one percent named the ruling party United Russia. In addition 13 percent did not vote.
If the opposition were allowed to get their parties registered at the next election, a relative majority (24.2 per cent) would vote for YABLOKO, 18.6 percent of those polled would vote for the potential party of Alexei Navalny, 10.9 per cent would vote for the Communists, 10.3 per cent for PARNAS and 8 per cent for Mikhail Prokhorov’s new party, while Just Russia and LDPR would each attract 5 percent of the electorate, and a new party by ex Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin would receive 3.9 percent.
A potential party of Russian nationalists headed by Alexander Belov and Dmitry Rogozin would attract the least votes (2 percent), followed by the ruling party United Russia (0.8 percent). Meanwhile 4.6 percent would not vote.
The participants of the rally also name Grigory Yavlinsky as the most popular politician speaking at the rally (27.4 per cent). He is followed after a big gap by PARNAS leaders Vladimir Ryzhkov (18.4 percent), Boris Nemtsov (13.3 percent) and Ilya Yashin (11.4 percent), oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov (15.1 percent) and Just Russia’s Gennady Gudkov (11 percent).
As for actual candidates in the forthcoming presidential elections, the participants of the rally were most supportive of Grigory Yavlinsky (29.1 percent). Mikhail Prokhorov gained the backing of 17.6 percent and communist Gennady Zyuganov 11.4 percent.
Most of the participants at the rally called themselves democrats (37.8 percent) and liberals (31.2 percent). Left-wing views garnered less supports: Communists (12.6 percent), social democrats (9.5 percent) and the new left (1.6 percent). Right-wing and extreme right-wing views were in a minority: national patriots (6.1 percent) and conservatives (2.8 percent). In addition to these groups participants indicated their support for the green party (8.1 percent), anarchists and anti-fascists (2 percent each). A further 12 per cent did not disclose their preferences.
The participants listed the following reasons for participating in the rally at Sakharov Prospekt: indignation over electoral fraud (72.5 percent), dissatisfaction with the situation in the country (72.8 percent), dissatisfaction over the indifference of the authorities to the views of the polled participants (51.7 percent), disappointment in modernization and President Medvedev (41.7 percent), solidarity with the parties participating in the rally (15.2 percent), sympathies to the organizers of the rally (13 percent). Another 15.5 per cent came to the rally to accompany their friends or simply because “it was interesting”.
An overwhelming majority of the participants (from 77 to 86 percent) support the key demands from the resolution of the rally: to annul the voting results, dismiss head of the Central Electoral Commission Vladimir Churov and form new electoral commissions, punish those who rigged the elections and adopt new democratic election laws. The proposal to release political prisoners, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, was slightly less popular (64.5 per cent).
In all 72 percent stated that they would be ready to work as observers at the forthcoming presidential elections. If the elections are rigged again, 81.9 percent would definitely attend another protest action, and another 16 percent would probably join them. In other words, it is highly likely that the next meeting will attract similar numbers.
Male (60 percent male against 40 percent female), people with higher education (62 percent and 7.7 percent with two university degrees), Muscovites and residents of Moscow region (79 percent and 17.5 percent respectively), young people and middle-aged people were the main participants of the rally. Most of those polled (39.4 percent) said that they were aged 23-39; 24.5 percent were aged 18-24; 22.8 percent – 40-54 and 21.5 percent over 55. Asked about their occupation, most said that they were “specialists” (46.1 percent). 16.5 percent called themselves managers (half of them managed more than 10 people). Students represented the third most numerous group (12.3 percent). The number of business owners (7.7 percent) was the same as white collar workers. Workers from the trade and services sector (4.2 percent) and workers (3.8 percent) represented a minority of attendants.
Housewives were the smallest group (1.6 percent). Nevertheless this refuted the popular opinion that only housewives learn the news from television: 17.7 percent of the polled learned about the rally via television, another 26.5 percent by radio, only 10 percent from newspapers and 4.6 percent from magazines. However, the Internet was the main media source (for 89 percent of those polled, including Internet publications for 55.8 percent). Word of month was the second most popular way of learning the news: 33.2 per cent learned about the rally from their friends and next of kin. In any case the overwhelming majority were active Internet users: 67.6 percent discussed the elections and related issues on social networks.